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In This Issue:
Spreading
the Wealth to Lower the Risk
The
ATM is Not Necessarily Your Friend
Risk
Tolerance
Tips
& Tricks
Making
Sense - What's an FSA and Why Should I Be Interested?
Cool
Stuff
Spreading
the Wealth to Lower the Risk
It’s
a well-established principle in investing circles that diversification
tends to reduce risk. This concept is easily understood when
investing in individual stocks and bonds (don’t put all your
eggs in one basket). It is less obvious when considering investing
in mutual funds since, by definition, mutual funds invest in
a broad range of securities. After all, by simply choosing a
mutual fund rather than investing in a few stocks or bonds one
can easily diversify and potentially reduce risk. So, why not
simply pick an index fund or a balanced fund and be done with
it?
In a
nutshell, the answer is that no single fund optimizes return
and minimizes risk consistently over time. Paraphrasing John
Bogle, Chairman of Vanguard, you can eliminate risk to capital
or eliminate risk to income, but you cannot do both with a single
investment. You need to balance types of investments against
one another to optimize both risk and income. How do you do
this? By understanding the kinds of risks presented by various
investment types and then selecting investments which balance
these risks most favorably in light of your investing objectives.
Of the
three principal investment types, stock funds present
the most risk to loss of capital. In short, there is no assurance
that you will get the principal of your investment back. At
the same time, stock mutual funds offer the best prospects of
growth over the long term.
Bond
funds, on the other hand, generally present the least risk
to loss of capital, but do so at the expense of growth. It should
be noted, however, that bond income is the most stable of all
the investment types.
Money
Funds offer superior protection
of capital, but the lowest income stability because interest
rates vary widely on these types of investments.
Now
that you have this neatly tucked away, what should, or can you
do with the knowledge? Well, whether you are choosing from 401(k)
plan options or selecting funds on your own, the basic steps
are to first learn about the various classes of funds and then
to select a combination that fits your tolerance for risk and
your investment goals.
Briefly,
here’s what you need to know:
Growth
and Income, Growth, and Aggressive Growth Funds have the
objective of increasing the value of the amount invested over
time. Growth and Income funds contain stocks of mature companies
that pay dividends (the blue chips). Growth funds mainly invest
in established companies who pay no dividends but use income
to invest in continued growth. Aggressive Growth funds contain
stocks of rapidly growing companies that pay no dividends. The
more aggressive the fund, the more capital is at risk. The range
of yields varies considerably between these fund types and should
be examined closely before making choices.
Balanced
Funds invest in stocks and bonds, plus a small percentage
in cash equivalents. Balanced fund investment styles vary, with
some favoring bonds over stocks (income-oriented) and some the
reverse (equity-oriented). In all cases, however, the objective
is to balance growth and income to optimize return at comparatively
low risk. Balanced funds generally adhere closely to their chosen
mix of investments over time. In one sense you can say that
the balanced fund is the ideal choice since it represents a
way for the average investor to hire a financial planner to
manage a broadly based portfolio of stocks and bonds. Appealing
as this may sound, you need to examine the composition of the
fund, its expenses and its objectives to be certain that they
meet your needs.
Asset
Allocation Funds are a form of
balanced fund with one major difference: they are aggressively
managed and make significant adjustments to their mix of stocks
and bonds in response to changes in market outlook. The objective
is to provide above-average returns over time as compared to
other balanced fund types. However, this active management style
usually comes at the expense of significant turnover (which
is expensive) and higher than average management costs. In the
end, Asset Allocation funds may under-perform other balanced
funds due to expenses alone, so one should examine these funds
carefully before making a decision.
Bond
Funds invest only in bonds, and
their principal objective is to produce income, not capital
growth. However, selecting a bond fund can be difficult. You
must choose between short, intermediate and long-term. Plus,
you must choose between eight kinds (US government, investment-grade
corporate, investment-grade municipal and high-yield corporate
among them). Finally, you need to consider yield, age of fund,
management tenure, and annual cost. In the end, however, it
will come down to buying the lowest-cost bond funds that meet
your risk tolerance objectives.
Money
Market Funds come in three basic
types: those that invest in Treasury bills; those that invest
in federal notes; and those that invest in what are known as
corporate or bank debt instruments. Capital risk is either virtually
nonexistent or very low. However, low capital risk is offset
by increased income risk because, as we have all observed, interest
rates vary widely over time. In the end, choosing comes down
to the fee, and fees vary widely among money funds. Look for
the highest quality funds that have the lowest expense ratio.
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The
ATM is not Necessarily Your Friend
Next
to credit cards, the ATM has emerged as the main enemy in our
ongoing efforts to get our financial lives under control. In
fact, you can probably find a dozen recently-published articles
out there right now that focus on the problem and offer varying
kinds of advice on what you should do. All have one thing in
common: they focus on media reports that most people have trouble
controlling their use of ATMs because they are such a universally
available source of cash. People, it is said, misuse ATMs by
accessing cash when they don’t actually need it and without
thinking about the consequences. Maybe that’s true and maybe
it’s not. In any case, it is certain that, just like any financial
tool, we certainly need to know how to use the ATM wisely.
Here
are some fundamentals to keep in mind:
An ATM
doesn’t know about the checks that you wrote yesterday, or today.
If you rely on the ATM to tell you what your balance is, it
can cause you to overdraw your account. Overdrafts cost money.
ATMs
only dispense in multiples of $20 bills, whether you need that
much or not. Whatever the case, if you withdraw it you will
find a way to spend it. What’s more, you are unlikely to keep
a record of what you spend the money on so, if you are on a
budget, you lose a measure of control.
More
and more banks are beginning to charge fees for the use of the
ATM. Some charge $2 per transaction, or more. If you use the
ATM as a wallet, you can quickly incur substantial charges for
its use. Think about it: a $2 charge on a $20 withdrawal amounts
to a 10% "tax" on your money even before you spend
it.
Nonetheless
ATMs are a terrific convenience. To use them wisely, make sure
you do at least the following:
1. Keep
your checkbook up-to-date; don’t rely on the ATM to do it. Sign
up for overdraft protection just in case.
2. Plan
your cash needs and try to develop the habit of making a withdrawal
only once a week. Better still, get cash back from your weekly
grocery shopping when possible. There are no ATM fees when you
write a check.
3. Find
out from your bank if they waive ATM fees when you maintain
a certain balance in your account. Keep at least the minimum
in your account.
4. Beware
of charges to use another bank’s ATM because these tend to be
the highest of all.
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Risk
Tolerance
In financial
terms we all fall into two broad "life" phases: accumulation
and distribution. These phases determine the overall amount
of risk we should be willing to take with the money we are saving
or have accumulated for retirement. That’s the rational view.
Our
choices will be influenced, however, by our built-in biases
toward risk. Some of us are risk takers, some are not. That’s
the irrational view.
From
our twenties to somewhere in our fifties we can be considered
to be in the accumulation phase. During this period our needs
for current income are usually satisfied by our jobs. This makes
it possible to concentrate our investing in types of funds that
have growth as their primary objective. This generally means
that we will invest mostly in stock funds. In the earlier years
we are likely to choose aggressive growth funds and index funds
as our primary vehicles, knowing that the risks will be reduced
over our long investing horizon. During this phase our tolerance
for risk should be fairly high.
From
our mid-fifties on, however, and particularly in the final five
years or so of our working lives, our attention will shift to
preserving the capital we have accumulated. Our long horizons
have vanished and market risk becomes a significant consideration.
During this period we are usually best served by moving most
of our investments to balanced funds, bond funds, and cash equivalents.
Such funds concentrate more on preservation of capital and generation
of income, at the expense of growth. We can say that during
this phase our tolerance for risk should be decreasing.
The
following matrix gives us an indication of the various levels
of risk we might expect from selecting different combinations
of stock and bond funds. Using history as a guide, the matrix
illustrates 20 and 30 year average returns for the market ending
in 1993. We have excluded the unprecedented returns of recent
years because they are not considered to be generally indicative
of what can be expected over the long-term.
|
Investment
Mix
|
20-Year
Average Rate of Return
|
30-Year
Average Rate of Return
|
Loss
Possibility in 1973-1974
|
Recovery
Rate Total Return 1/1/73-12/31/76
|
Total
Return
|
|
100%
Stocks
|
12.8%
|
10.5%
|
-32%
|
+4%
|
1,112%
|
|
80%
Stocks
20% Bonds
|
12.4%
|
9.6%
|
-30%
|
+13%
|
1,036%
|
|
60%
Stocks
40% Bonds
|
12.0%
|
9.5%
|
-22%
|
+19%
|
965%
|
|
40%
Stocks
60% Bonds
|
11.0%
|
8.8%
|
-18%
|
+25%
|
806%
|
|
20%
Stocks
80% Bonds
|
10.4%
|
8.1%
|
-3%
|
+28%
|
723%
|
In addition,
we can see from the "Loss Possibility" column what
each combination experienced during the "crash" of
1973-74. To offset that dismal result, the "Recovery Rate"
column shows what each combination gained in value over the
four-year period ending in December 1976.
From
these statistics we can see, for example, that the most conservative
portfolio of 80% bonds lost less and corrected faster; but,
over 20 years it accumulated about one-third less money than
the 100% stock portfolio. As you are assessing your tolerance
for risk, keep this matrix in mind. Ask yourself how you would
feel in a major market downturn? Would you be willing to lose
32%, as the 100% stocks portfolio did, if you stood the chance
to accumulate 50% more money in 20 years than your other choices?
Do you have the time to recover?
Whichever
phase you’re in, make your preliminary fund selections according
to the rational view. Then look at them in light of the matrix
below and your feelings about risking your money. When you have
adjusted your choices to a portfolio that you think you can
sleep with, you have established your tolerance for risk.
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Tips
& Tricks
Check
out a fund’s expense ratio before investing. When all is said
and done, the cost of managing the fund may well be what determines
your choice between one fund and another, because it can significantly
reduce net yield.
Statistically
speaking, all stock performance eventually "regresses to
the mean", which explains why most funds do not outperform
the market over time. The reason is that the markets ultimately
price themselves in line with the underlying earnings and dividends
of the companies themselves. With this in mind, don’t expect
your investments to grow on average much more than 10% annually
over time.
When
choosing a mutual fund keep in mind that past performance is
absolutely no indicator of future growth. While most people
make investment choices based on recent fund performance, there
is a large body of evidence that proves beyond any doubt that
this factor is of no value in fund selection. Analyze the consistency
of a fund’s performance over at least a 10-year period, if possible,
but do not make this record your central selection criterion.
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Making
Sense - What’s an FSA and Why Should I Be Interested?
More
and more employers are offering FSAs (Flexible Spending Accounts)
to their employees these days. These accounts permit you to
set aside a fixed amount of your income tax-free (not tax-deferred
as with 401(k) plans) to pay for certain medical expenses that
are not covered by your medical insurance, as well as dependent
daycare expenses.
People
normally use this money to pay for medical and dental deductibles
and excess premiums, prescription eyeglasses, dental care, prescription
drugs and day care costs.
Since
the money is never taxed, Uncle Sam effectively pays some of
your medical and daycare costs. The drawback is that you must
spend all you put aside annually or lose it. So, you need to
plan carefully.
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Cool
Stuff
Indexes
Prime Rate - 7.75%
Fixed
Mortgage
30 Year - 6.63%, 15 Year - 6.28%
Home
Equity Loan
8.89%
Automobile
Loan
8.42%
Internet
Sites
www.investoreducation.com,
www.nstl.com
Dow
Jones Average History
12/94 - 3,837
12/95 - 5,117
12/96 - 6,561
12/97 - 7,908
12/98 - 9,181
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